The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage between Benfica (Portugal) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) will take place on September 16 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica vs. Qarabag: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Benfica
Last season, the team finished second in the Portuguese league and began their Champions League journey from the third qualifying round. Bruno Lage's side defeated Nice (2-0, 2-0) and Fenerbahçe (0-0, 1-0), securing a spot in the main round of this tournament for the fifth consecutive time. During this period, Benfica reached the quarter-finals twice, and last season they were eliminated in the Round of 16. This will be the 45th season for the Portuguese club in this European competition, with only Real Madrid having more appearances (56). Notably, the club has not lost in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
- The team scored first in 7 of their last 10 Champions League encounters.
- At home in this tournament, Benfica has not won in 5 of their last 7 matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
- In 5 of their last 7 home Champions League games, the Portuguese side has not scored more than two goals.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Samuel Dall, Nicolas Otamendi, Tomas Araujo – Richard Rios, Enzo Barrenechea, Florentino – Fredrik Aursnes, Evangelos Pavlidis, Kerem Akturkoglu.
Defenders Amar Dedic, Alexander Bah, midfielder Manu Silva, and forwards Dodi Lukebakio, Bruma are injured.
Qarabag
For four consecutive seasons, the team has won the Azerbaijan championship, but during this period, they failed to progress through the Champions League qualifying rounds. Thus, this is only the second time in their history that the club has reached the main stage of the Champions League. In the current tournament, Gurban Gurbanov's side defeated Shelbourne (3-0, 1-0), Shkëndija (1-0, 5-1), and Ferencváros (3-1, 2-3). Last season, the Azerbaijani side participated in the Europa League, finishing in last place (36th). Notably, Qarabag has not drawn in the Champions League for 12 matches (8 wins, 4 losses).
- The team's goal-scoring streak in the Champions League spans 6 matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of Qarabag's last 7 away matches in this tournament.
- Away in the Champions League, the club has won 5 of their last 6 encounters (1 loss).
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Marko Jankovic – Camilo Duran.
Referee
Erik Lambrechts (Belgium)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 25%.
Benfica vs. Qarabag: Match Prediction
The Azerbaijani side showed excellent results in the qualifying rounds, but one must consider the level of their opponents. Against stronger teams, Qarabag is likely to face greater difficulties, as seen in last season's Europa League. In the group stage of that tournament, Gurban Gurbanov's side suffered 7 defeats, four of which were heavy losses. Moreover, the club conceded even in their only victory.
The Portuguese team delivered several exciting and high-scoring matches in the last Champions League season. Against a lower-class opponent, Bruno Lage's side is expected to play attacking football. However, Benfica's defense lacks reliability; in their last 7 home Champions League games, the club conceded 12 goals. Qarabag, having scored in 10 of their last 11 away matches in this tournament, could capitalize on this.
The hosts should secure three points in a high-scoring match. My prediction: Benfica to win and Total over 2.5 goals
